Bitcoin Trading Journal 9/7/2018

Hello,

I finally decided to start up this blog as a trade journal so that I can document my learning journey into trading. Hope that i can get more proficient with analysis and currently spending time learning. Do feel free to check in from time to time to see how my learning process has progressed with time. If you have any advice for me do also let me know!

Bitcoin 9/7/2018

Previous day volume: 3386210000

Dominance: 42.4%

Weekly: The weekly closed with a pretty strong confirmation candle after the last push up to the mid 6800+. This reduces the chances of it being a bear flag on the weekly scale. Major support at 6350 range and major resistance at 6850. A break above will probably see a move up to the low 7200s and a break below will probably see BTC looking back to testing the lows. 

Bulls will look for a lower high and then a higher low and higher high to confirm the change in trend. The direction that BTC will take however still is quite unclear to me and i have no idea which way it will go. 

Looking at other indicators for clues...

MACD histogram is starting to uptick

TD Sequential is now price flipping to a green 1.

26EMA is still far below the 12EMA.

Getting mixed signals and no entry signals long or short. 

Daily: Currently this is an inside bar with range 6801.9 and 6666.1. The past few days however have proven that in the current environment, inside bar breaks have given alot of false breakouts.  This has happened in both direction with long up/lower wicks for the past 4-5 days of trading. I was caught in some of these false breakouts but managed to exit with small profit by using small targets. Current the strong support and resistance above the range is still holding. 

MACD histogram is starting to down tick

TD is on a green 3 however has not traded higher than the prior candle which means no entry for a long.

12/26EMA are starting to get close for a golden cross.

Volume has been decreasing since the big bounce on 29/6 with many more green days than red.

4hr: Higher High and Higher lows are seen. Still holding above the EMAs  

Green Volume spikes seem to be of similar level, maybe slightly more suggesting strength in buying. Latest up spike did not fade out as much as the previous also suggesting strength in buying. There is however some bearish divergence on the MACD and price to note. 

TD sequential is currently on a red 2 but no short entry yet. we are also really close to the resistance of 6850 which would deter me from taking an long positions in the area until the resistance is broken to the upside convincingly with increased volume.

Yesterday's bearish H&S pattern also invalidated with the up spike.

signals are very mixed.

Overall, long term i still feel it is more bearish. 

Reasons are that apart from the 5' spikes in buying, there is little volume during consolidation.

Daily volume seems to be dropping back under the big 4 level. 

BTC dominance is rising suggesting flight from other coins. (less risk taking)

Some bearish divergence on the 4hr. 

Shorts are not at a crazy high level like before, meaning that upside seems limited as short squeeze contribution gets less.

No buyers, no short squeeze, tons of overhead resistance = not much up side potential. 

Maybe we might get afew more weaker spikes to the .382 level and at most .5 level fib retracement. but after i think we run out of buying pressure and are going back down.