Bitcoin Trading Journal 22/7/2018
Volume: 3,726,610,000
Dominance: 45.2%
Checking back on BTC today. The past week i've been following the US stock markets more clearly, looking for opportunities. But today, i'm back with bitcoin to see how things are developing.
After the initial bounce from the 5785 level, we have made a higher low at 6079.9 and a following higher high at 7690 region. This confirms the short term change in the trend. The next resistance level that we will need to get through will be the 7800 region which then provides a big window up to potentially 8500.
For the past days, I've been waiting for a consolidation and potentially the formation of a higher low possibly at the 6800-6900 region after 5 big green days and only a small red day between another 2 green days. Daily MACD is around the 65 region which in my opinion is pretty high and shows over extension of the move up. There have been tests by the bull to break higher however each time there has been strong rejections shown by strong upper wicks. Bears however have rarely tested the support at 7240 level. On the daily the TD says we are on a green 7 which makes me cautious that the drop to form the higher low is coming soon however because we are on a weekly green 1, i expect the upside momentum to continue at least for another week or two (satisfying the 1-4 candle correction) before more downside.
The 4hr seems to be forming a bearish H&S pattern and currently we are on a green 7 which continues to add to my caution that a drop is imminent. As a result, i have only been make quick flips on BTC long during the day and go back to cash in the night waiting for the drop.
Trading breakouts have not been as reliable as the volume doesnt come in to back it up on multiple occasions and i find it easier and less risky to by close to support risking a move up of 5%. But to me, capital preservation is key. Volume has dropped off considerably over the last 3 days and i will continue to wait for direction with buy orders in the low 7000 just incase to catch the lows.
For more aggressive traders, the stop levels are clear to the long side but the risk of whipsaw is very real.
Red volume seems to be slightly more in the past days.
Also i am noting the significant increase in btc dominance. Compared with the short squeeze that occured, it seems that a big portion of this bounce could be from the flight from alts to btc as well.
Will see how things develop. usually the action happens at 12am utc +8.
Dominance: 45.2%
Checking back on BTC today. The past week i've been following the US stock markets more clearly, looking for opportunities. But today, i'm back with bitcoin to see how things are developing.
After the initial bounce from the 5785 level, we have made a higher low at 6079.9 and a following higher high at 7690 region. This confirms the short term change in the trend. The next resistance level that we will need to get through will be the 7800 region which then provides a big window up to potentially 8500.
For the past days, I've been waiting for a consolidation and potentially the formation of a higher low possibly at the 6800-6900 region after 5 big green days and only a small red day between another 2 green days. Daily MACD is around the 65 region which in my opinion is pretty high and shows over extension of the move up. There have been tests by the bull to break higher however each time there has been strong rejections shown by strong upper wicks. Bears however have rarely tested the support at 7240 level. On the daily the TD says we are on a green 7 which makes me cautious that the drop to form the higher low is coming soon however because we are on a weekly green 1, i expect the upside momentum to continue at least for another week or two (satisfying the 1-4 candle correction) before more downside.
The 4hr seems to be forming a bearish H&S pattern and currently we are on a green 7 which continues to add to my caution that a drop is imminent. As a result, i have only been make quick flips on BTC long during the day and go back to cash in the night waiting for the drop.
Trading breakouts have not been as reliable as the volume doesnt come in to back it up on multiple occasions and i find it easier and less risky to by close to support risking a move up of 5%. But to me, capital preservation is key. Volume has dropped off considerably over the last 3 days and i will continue to wait for direction with buy orders in the low 7000 just incase to catch the lows.
For more aggressive traders, the stop levels are clear to the long side but the risk of whipsaw is very real.
Red volume seems to be slightly more in the past days.
Also i am noting the significant increase in btc dominance. Compared with the short squeeze that occured, it seems that a big portion of this bounce could be from the flight from alts to btc as well.
Will see how things develop. usually the action happens at 12am utc +8.
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